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Analysis: Colitis market to hit $1.1B
September 18, 2006 - Washington, DC --(UPI)-- Emerging
drugs from Shire, Procter & Gamble, Isis and PDL BioPharma
are set to drive the ulcerative colitis market from $656
million to $1.1 billion by 2015, according to an analyst
report released Monday.
"Really what is driving that is the high-priced, emerging
therapies," Vickie Lai, an analyst
with Decision Resources and author of the report, told United Press International.
The biggest one of these is likely to be Shire's Mesavance.
"This stands to make an impressive impact on the market
because it has a different dosing schedule," Lai said.
Patients on Mesavance only have to take one or two pills
per day versus up to nine per day with some current medications.
This could help improve patient compliance and keep the condition
in check, which physicians now emphasize because flare-ups
may increase the risk of colon cancer, Lai said.
The report projects Shire's drug could generate approximately
$300 million in sales by 2015. The drug will primarily steal
market share away from the current leaders, including Shire's
Pentasa and Proctor and Gamble's Asacol, rather than expanding
the market.
Proctor and Gamble has its own new medication in development,
RDP-58, that also stands to be a significant player. But
it's uptake will be limited because of its side effect profile.
"Physicians are worried about side effects because
it affects a part of the immune system that is pretty vital," Lai
said. The drug targets the MAP kinase pathway.
Despite these concerns, the drug will do ok and is expected
to bring in sales of about $10 million in 2015, the report
projects.
Isis' alicaforsen will also see its uptake limited by safety
concerns. Lai said the drug is similar to Elan/Biogen Idec's
multiple sclerosis treatment Tysabri, which was temporarily
taken off the market when it was found to increase the risk
of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy, a viral infection
of the brain that can be fatal.
So "physicians are going to make that link and some
might be conservative about prescribing it," she said.
Even with the comparison to Tysabri, alicaforsen still stands
to generate sales of $15 million by 2015 because there are
limited options for treating this disease and patients and
physicians often would rather try a medication before opting
for the last resort: surgical removal of the colon.
George Fulop and Mona Ashiya, analysts with Needham, told
UPI, Isis has had difficulties finding a development partner
for alicaforsen.
The drug "showed promising results" in a phase
2 study, "but the challenge has been for Isis to identify
a development partner," Fulop said.
However, alicaforsen isn't what's driving investor interest
in Isis, Ashiya noted. Two other drugs in the pipeline --
301012 for managing high cholesterol and 113715 for diabetes
-- garner more interest in the company's stock, which Needham
currently rates a buy.
Isis recently presented phase 2 results for these drugs
and both looked impressive. The phase 2 trial of 301012 showed
the drug safely lowers LDL and total cholesterol after three
months of treatment. The 113715 data demonstrated clinical
benefits beyond glucose control, including reductions in
cholesterol levels.
"We are impressed with the recent clinical data around
lead product candidates, ISIS 301012 and ISIS 113715, and
we believe additional clinical data from these product candidates
in (the second half of this year) will generate investor
interest," Ashiya wrote in a research report issued
last month.
The fourth ulcerative colitis drug that looks promising
is PDL Biopharma's visilizumab, which the company is developing
for patients who have not responded to steroids. These patients
are typically the sickest.
The drug "only has phase 2 results, so there are still
a lot of unanswered questions, but physicians are looking
forward to it because these patients are so desperate," Lai
said.
Although PDL is targeting a small segment of the patient
population, visilizumab stands to rake in $45 million because
it is expected to be priced quite high, she said.
About Decision Resources
Decision Resources, Inc., (www.decisionresources.com) is a world leader in research publications, advisory services, and consulting designed to help clients shape strategy, allocate resources, and master their chosen markets.
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